Those three elections

There is speculation as to what the outcome of the November 3, 2009 elections will say about the current mindset of the electorate. I believe the races for Governor of Virginia and New Jersey, and the Congressional race in NY23 each tell a different story.

If the Republican wins in Virginia, it will tell me that the disinterested first-time voters of November, 2008, who voted to elect Barack Obama, voted then for personal reasons - personality, race, rhetoric, anybody but Bush, etc. - and have now drifted back into the "I couldn't care less" abyss.
If the Virginia Democrat wins, it will signal that those first time voters are still engaged - they just can't be reached by the pollsters.

If the Republican wins in New Jersey, I will read that to mean the voters are fed up with their incumbent Governor and no amount of campaign spending or high - powered endorsements will sway them.
If the Democrat wins, it will show us that big bucks and appearances by political big shots can still buy the votes.

If the Conservative wins in NY23, I will conclude that a majority of voters have opted to choose policy over party... that party label alone can no longer be a sure fire ticket to ride into office.
If the Republican wins, we will know that old time party loyalties are still a big factor.
If the Democrat wins, I guess we concede that third party candidates can still split the spoils and elect the one who should have been the runner-up.

Happily for me, in the Mountain Time Zone, I won't have to stay up too late to find the answers.