From the gut...

Most often when we say "gut feeling", we simply mean something like "from deep within, a belief with no evidence of fact". So, it's a guess, but one with strong conviction.

For some time I have been wanting to say the unthinkable... that Barack Obama faces a landslide defeat in November. No one wants to say anything that will evoke a sympathy vote. No one wants Obama opponents to feel overconfident and stay home on election day. But, I speak to a small audience, so I will say it. Obama is toast.

I have watched a lot of presidential elections - 2012, in fact, will be my 21st. I was around for one other, but too young to have had an interest in politics - I was born the day Herbert Hoover was elected!

At times the outcome was evident long in advance. One time experts were fooled even on election day (1948).

In retrospect some election outcomes became apparent in increments along the way. Brick by brick a wall was built that totally blocked one candidate. That is happening in 2012.

Today we hear that Cecil Roberts, president of The United Mine Workers, hints that his Union may not support Barack Obama because of the Administration's "war on coal". The United Mine Workers president not supporting the Democrat candidate??? Does anyone remember John L. Lewis? Lay a brick.

Obama's chief political adviser, David Axelrod stumbled through an interview with a incoherent statement that seemed to confuse his talking point about voter choices, giving the Republican candidate material for an anti-Obama TV commercial. Lay a brick.

Another adviser spouts an equally incoherent statement that seemed to decry American moms. What is the saying about things quintessentially American: Apple Pie and MOTHERHOOD! Lay a brick.

Despite Democrat assertions to the contrary, former Vice-President Dick Chaney is a well-respected public servant. He has declared Obama's presidency to be an unmitigated disaster. A great many will help lay that brick. 

Scandals from GSA to Solyndra to Fast and Furious to signature legislation that may be declared unconstitutional to Secret Service agents exposing themselves to compromise to soaring gasoline prices and food prices... our imaginary mason must indeed be a fast and furious bricklayer.

Yes, last minute surprises happen. Does anyone recall Thomas Eagleton? A Senator from Missouri, Eagleton was chosen as Democrat George McGovern's running mate in 1972. Nearing the election, it was revealed that Eagleton had sought medical treatment for what, fairly or unfairly, was perceived to be a mental disorder. End of McGovern's candidacy.

And, yes, there could be an October surprise this year. But it will have to be an irresistible force to overcome the immoveable wall blocking Obama's reelection.